When the eastern city of Avdiivka, a Ukrainian stronghold, fell to Russian forces three weeks ago, Kiev and its allies feared that Moscow’s forces could establish their momentum and quickly advance toward strategic military centers and population centers. can increase
But after gaining momentum in the following days, the Russian attacks stopped the villages around the three fighters. Military experts cite a number of factors, including terrain that does not favor offensive operations, Russian forces fatigued from months of fighting and the Ukrainian military that has committed significant forces to the area’s defense.
Russia appears to maintain its initiative on the battlefield, and military analysts say its forces could still break through Ukrainian lines in the near future, especially as Kiev’s defense efforts become more U.S.-led. are increasing due to the absence of military aid.
Still, they say the fighting appears to have reverted to the kind of unprovoked back-and-forth battles that have characterized much of the war’s front-line battles this past year.
“The capture of Avdiivka has not led to the collapse of the Ukrainian lines, the possibility of the Russians moving into the open or even making major gains,” said Thibault Fouillet, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies. French Research Center. “There is no decisive action or progress.”
This is in contrast to the situation that arose from the fall of Avdiivka in mid-February. Meanwhile, as Ukrainian forces retreated, Russia advanced rapidly, aided in part by Ukraine’s absence of strong defensive positions. Russian forces captured three settlements and captured nine square miles of land, according to open-source maps of the battlefield.
But in the past 10 days, Moscow has captured just over a square mile of land, according to open-source maps. Its soldiers are fighting in and around the villages of Bardichi, Orlyuka and Tuninki.
Russian forces “seem to be trying to advance using small infantry assault groups, but are collapsing in the relatively open terrain west of Avdiivka,” Pasi Parvinen said. Black Bird GroupA Finland-based open source community that reviews satellite imagery and social media content from battlefields.
The recent fighting has also come at the expense of the Ukrainian military, which appears to have committed some of its best troops and weaponry to the war in the region west of Ideoka.
Its 47th Brigade, which the United States trained and equipped last year, is defending Berdichy. A video released by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry shows the brigade using American-made Abrams tanks, the most advanced of the US.
Ukraine’s military is “allocating all possible weapons” to the fighting outside Avdiivka, said Serhiy Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a non-governmental research group.
But three Ukrainian Abrams tanks have been destroyed or damaged and abandoned there in the past two weeks, according to Oryx, a military analytics website that calculates damage based on visual evidence.
Ukrainian forces also suffered heavily as they fought Russian attacks on Avdiivka for months.
Military experts say the ongoing defense in Ukrainian territory is likely aimed at giving their units time to prepare and reinforce new defense lines to the west. The Ukrainian military recently published photos of the fortress, which it says is located near the Avdiivka battle area, including a 6.5-foot-deep trench and anti-tank ditches.
“You’ve got a stronghold that’s fallen,” said Mr. Foylet, pointing to Avdiivka, “so you need time to put the defensive line back in place.”
Russia’s attack on Avdiivka resulted in huge human and material losses for its troops. British military intelligence said The average daily number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded in February, when Moscow was devoting large numbers of troops to the Battle of Avdiivka, had reached 983, “the highest rate since the beginning of the war.”
Mr. Pervinin and Mr. Kozan noted that Ukrainian forces have benefited from the territory of the region. While Russian forces are attacking Berdychi, Orlyuka, and Tuninki through open fields with little cover, Ukrainian units are occupying high ground in the villages, making it easier for Russian troops to approach.
Should Russian forces eventually capture the three villages, it is unclear what their exact next steps will be, as the terrain is mountainous and riddled with streams and reservoirs, complicating further advances.
Mr Kozan said Russia’s military was currently conducting attacks at multiple locations along more than 600 miles of the front line to probe Ukraine’s defenses.
“Which of them will be prioritized, for example, in the next two days or next week, will depend on how well they succeed in advancing our defenses,” he said. “Where they are successful going forward, they will set aside additional reserves to build on their success.” This is their strategy.