A row of foreign diplomats line up to present their credentials to President Xi Jinping at an official ceremony hosted by the Chinese government in Beijing on January 30. One of the 309 diplomats was an unlikely participant.
After more than two years of negotiations, China recognized Bilal Karimi, a former Taliban spokesman, as an official representative in Beijing, making Xi’s government the first in the world to do so since the group seized power in Afghanistan in 2021. .
China has been meddling in Afghanistan through investments and projects since the US withdrew troops from the country in 2021, beginning the fall of the Western-backed Afghan government and paving the way for the Taliban’s return to power.
But as news of Beijing’s formal recognition of the Taliban spread on January 30, China’s Foreign Ministry was quick to issue a statement clarifying that Beijing’s acceptance of the diplomatic credentials officially recognized Afghanistan’s current rulers. It is not an indication of recognition.
It was too late.
By then, Beijing’s move was already a major diplomatic success for the Taliban, who are struggling for global recognition of their government, analysts say. Since taking power, the group has been isolated on the international front, mainly due to its strict interpretation of Islamic law to support armed groups and impose restrictions on women’s rights and freedoms. Western sanctions against the Taliban have in turn had a negative impact on the Afghan economy.
But why did China recognize Karimi as the Taliban’s representative in Beijing – and what does this mean for the group?
China has great interests in Afghanistan
At a time when Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are ostracized by many countries around the world, China has stepped up engagement with the group.
In 2023, many Chinese companies signed several business agreements with the Taliban government. The most prominent of these was a 25-year, multi-million dollar oil extraction contract with an estimated investment value of $150 million in the first year, and up to $540 million over the next three years.
The relationship has a history, said Jie Zhou, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
“The Taliban are not an unknown entity to the Chinese government, which reached out to them when they were a foreign government in the late 1990s and maintained a working relationship with the Taliban as an insurgent group,” he told Al Jazeera. He told Al Jazeera.
Beijing’s decades-old working relationship with the Taliban, Zhou said, was a “natural consequence” of several factors, particularly security.
“As a direct neighbor of Afghanistan, China’s own security depends on the Taliban. It can afford to alienate or oppose them, and certainly has no interest in doing so on values,” he said. ,
And Beijing is not alone in seeking such a pragmatic relationship with the group.
“Many of Afghanistan’s neighbors share the same position as China: the Taliban need to be engaged rather than isolated,” he said. “China’s [acceptance of the Taliban ambassador] There are many indications of a China that has become comfortable being the first mover in the foreign policy domain.
‘Realism and Opportunity’
During the 1900s, during the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, many regional countries took a critical stance against it. However, “realism and opportunism” have emerged as key drivers in geopolitics since the 2021 takeover, Gautam Mukhopadhyay, senior visiting fellow at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and former Indian ambassador to Kabul, told Al Jazeera. tell me
“Realism is in the sense that right now, it looks like the Taliban are the only game in town,” he said. “Despite the unpopularity of the Taliban and its repressive measures, the resistance [against them]Today, the United States has made it clear that it has no compelling geopolitical interest, stomach or desire to commit resources to Afghanistan, civilian and military.
While China is the first country to recognize a Taliban ambassador, several other countries, including Russia, Iran, Turkey and India, have sought to reopen their diplomatic missions in Kabul, not only on humanitarian projects but with the Taliban.
An International Crisis Group (ICG) report released last month, examining the Taliban’s relations with its neighbors, observed similar patterns of engagement. “They believe that the best way to protect their countries’ interests and to moderate the Taliban’s behavior in the long term is to be patient with Kabul rather than be tolerant,” the report said.
“The world will not stand back and wait for Western sentiment to change in favor of the Taliban.” We are here on the frontlines,” a regional diplomat was quoted as saying in the ICG report.
What is the benefit to the Taliban?
Western hostility, particularly in the form of sanctions, has had a severe impact on aid-dependent Afghanistan. There is widespread unemployment and hunger, with an estimated 23.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in 2024.
According to statistics compiled by several international organizations, more than 13 million people – about 30 percent of the country’s population – face extreme food insecurity. This number is estimated to increase to 15.8 million by March.
Similarly, the International Labor Organization estimates a 35 percent decline in Afghanistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 since the Taliban took over, resulting in the loss of more than 900,000 jobs by 2021 and leading to massive unemployment.
To face these crises, the Taliban needed partners. It now has one, Mukhopadhyay said. “It can now count on a major power at least on its side,” said a former Indian diplomat.
“Ideally, the Taliban would like to have strong ties with major global powers such as the US and China, and regional powers such as Russia and India for various reasons,” Ibrahim Behis, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), told Al Jazeera. .
He said that America is not ready to play ball, China has become more important for Taliban.
A cautious Taliban
Deeper ties with China “could come at a price” for the Taliban, Bahis warned, “In the case of falling into the Chinese grip, other countries have discovered their anger.
“But for now, both sides look ready to play.”
ICG analysts, however, said the Taliban, despite being hungry for recognition, may still be wary of how much it engages with Beijing.
“The Taliban are still trying to maintain some degree of ties with China because they know that the more they gravitate towards Beijing, the more regional powers like Russia and India will be reluctant to develop ties with Kabul, which has The result will be a lot of anxiety. The Taliban are desperate to avoid the same foreign patronage,” he said.
“China, for obvious reasons, has emerged as a key driver of regional outreach and engagement with the Taliban,” Behis added.
“However, all this creates a spiral, where the Taliban become more isolated, they turn more to China to replace the diplomatic weight that the US previously gave.
